Post 120: I despair

Post-election coverage analysis is weird stuff, because on the evidence of one election the punditariat go nuts with long term predictions that have little or no basis in fact.

The current theory du jour is that Rudd will win at least two terms.

Well head on over to the Australian Election Commission’s Virtual Tally Room and you’ll see that as of today there are still eight seats in the lower house that are too close to call, because the two party preferred vote is somewhere between 49.5% and 50.5% for the Libs and the ALP.

Unless the postal votes go nutty, that translates to eight seats that will end up with tiny margins.

A couple of scandals and the Ruddbot could be out on his ear in three years.

So let’s not have this Rudd dynasty, Libs in disarray argument running uncontested. The ALP has a healthy margin for this parliament. It will not take many votes changing to make it a very slim margin next time around. And with general agreement that the world economy is not exactly poised for a fabulous few years, how exactly will the ALP extend its lead in those marginals next time?

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One thought on “Post 120: I despair

  1. The knowledge of the fine margin should keep Labor honest and on their toes, and the opposite is also true for the Libs, because a swing to Labor of just 1.5% at the next election could see them delivered another ten seats, something that would surely be the death of the Libs.

    As a result I’m sure everyone on both sides will be on their best behaviour over the next three years.

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